Nonlinear Development

Our minds seem to struggle with nonlinearity more than we should. Given how much of reality is actually nonlinear, it’s a wonder why we are still stuck with wanting things to be linear, and panicking when the progress bar is not moving as time moves forward. It is important to anticipate when further actions needs to be taken as things are not progressing well so it is important to track progress but being unable to appreciate non-linearity means we can misallocate attention and resources.

There were many occasions when I used to organise events and we review sign-up rates or “ticket sales” weekly as we approach the events. Of course things will always be slow at the start but then it tends to pick up, and even so, in a very uneven manner where it accelerates crazily a few days before the event. People tend to put off securing their places at events until closer to the date thinking they don’t want to commit their calendar so early on in time. But the management will be unduly worried about poor turnout at the events and activate disproportionately more resources to drive the numbers.

Being able to look at past figures and the growth curve from past experience helps but not perfectly because we tend to insert those ‘boost’ right before the late stages just before the sign-ups pick up wildly. So we can even think that those ‘boost’ actions (like placing more ads) actually works. Sometimes, they create so much awareness even after the event sell out that we have to turn people away. And appreciation for nonlinearity is important for any leader and one who is developing a vision for the future.

Because the journey there would not be linear and the assurance that ‘we will get there’ is not going to come from data, or your people, but from your commitment to your vision.

You were not considered

In my mentoring and coaching practice, I’ve always encouraged my mentee and clients to do something different when applying for jobs. It will mean taking a lot more effort such as ensuring that your CVs are tailored properly to the job description, investigating the alignment between your motivation and the elements that the hiring manager might be looking for.

Despite these efforts, it’s entirely likely that you are not even called for an interview. And that doesn’t have to do with anything you’ve put on your CV or wrote on your cover letter. It can be related entirely to the processes and logistical challenges that the company hiring was facing. I’ve received rejection notification that came a year after I applied to the opening. Then there are those who goes completely silent on you and you simply give up on them.

Feedback is important in the process of job-seeking and iterations do make a huge difference in helping you improve. But the difficulty is we can sometimes take these things personally when the hiring firm behaves badly. It is important to recognise sometimes we are rejected and they give us a flimsy excuse with no effort to provide feedback entirely because you were not even considered at all. The firms will not try their best to find the perfect candidate. They have vacancies to fill and it’s important they are going to just pick the first person who seemed like a reasonable candidate – who accepts the offer. That means there are CVs/letters they are going to ignore completely and are not even sure about whether to reply to.

You may feel that’s a bit unfair. But we do these things to others all the time. We ration our attention at dinner conversations, and we will not be pondering over every single sharing from our friends to give them our heartfelt responses. We might even spend more time on Instagram instead of the people we are physically present with. So allow that understanding to restore your mental health.

Vision & Control

More than once since independence, Singapore’s government have been described more than once as a nanny state or being paternalistic. We’ve been a very Asian society where individuals are expected to sacrifice for the greater good of the society and community. Over the years, thanks to the good stewardship and development, individuals have been able to enjoy progressively less sacrifice and more “enjoyment”.

The outcomes that our society enjoys have been used to justify some of our “controls” so to speak. We have good citizens complying to measures from the government partly also because there were great vision from the leaders at the point of independence. I would argue the vision is more important in getting people onboard than the promise of the outcome – because that outcome cannot be guaranteed. But a vision and a commitment to the vision can be assured.

Our leadership needs to recognise that for all the upgraded tools in terms of policy-making, enforcement and technology at surveillance, we might be tempted to think that government can carefully calibrate every movement of the nation and people to achieve good outcomes. This perspective sets us up for failure because it was never the controls that drive the results but the vision that got people’s buy-in to the controls.

This point is very nuanced and I really hope we can see more vision, and commitment to the vision in the work of our leaders.

Daily Ideas

The discipline of writing, putting out ideas everyday started out more as an attempt to learn to show up daily. And in Seth Godin’s words, to practise shipping the work. But then it also evolved, it helped me think through ideas more, come up with more ideas, and to learn to craft them, convey them in different ways.

There are some recurring ideas that I keep revisiting such as the importance of the story we tell ourselves, the purpose of life and work, issues surrounding mental health from different angles. Writing daily helps me to build them up, reinforce them from different ideas and also explore the stray connections they may have with each other.

It has helped me be more curious about the world. I had this habit before – in 2006-2007 when I was preparing more for national exams. When I determined that I should write 1 essay a day. It was mainly to train my ability to write cogently; but I did already fall in love with writing then.

So for those out there with ideas to share, I’d say, please write on.

Strategy & Tactics III

Strategy is required as a result of scarcity – limited resources, time, capacity. If you had infinite resources, you don’t need a strategy because you can afford to squander any amount of resources to get to where you want. But then again if the end goal of strategies are to get more resources, then having infinite resources basically mean you already fulfilled your goals.

Then there is evolution, which is where optimising resources at system level is not as important as proliferating diversity and searching for multiple optimal strategies. This is how a specie survive, and how the market system perpetuates. In such a system, tactics in the short term can become an obsession. So it is important to understand what is the game you’re playing before figuring out how you play it.

So what is the strategy for? Why do you want to be number one? Why is that worth living, training for? Are those questions really necessary? Can we ignore them? Is there something else we are trying to move towards when we think about our “strategies” – can we achieve the something else differently?

Single outcome & general outcomes

We could be focused on sustainability thinking we just want to reduce plastics waste, and think about all ways to substitute it. There’re reusable bottles, food containers, etc. My home is full of plastic reusable water bottles, as well as food containers. We do use them but there’s a sense they eventually become plastic waste as well. And then there’s the whole drive on biodegradable plastics; which I discovered to be more resource intensive than normal plastics – and gets incinerated in our waste-to-energy plants anyways.

When we are militant about single outcomes: eg. losing weight, getting good grades, becoming a manager, or running a unicorn startup before the age of 40, we can lose many things. And we can be burning resources unnecessary to get to those single outcomes without recognising that what we want is something more general. We have this obsession that with this one thing, all things will be alright. It’s exactly the kind of struggle and challenge that Disney Pixar’s Soul (a film) is trying to reflect on.

When we select our desire outcomes, we might want to think more holistically; it’ll be hard to work out the strategy and paths towards that, but allowing ourselves to think this way will help us go farther.

Strategy and Tactics II

Go figure out how to increase sales. What should we do when the competitors cut price? Those guys are opening more stores and taking our customers, how? What is the “strategy” to deal with impunctual employees? How can we change the “policy” to help alleviate burn out?

All of these are tactics. And we are so consumed by them at work. We are constantly being pestered to work on tactics, and there’s so much to prepare and do just to keep up. When will it end? There’s always the next shiny object to chase. Obsession with tactics creates anxiety and a bottomless hole that is never filled.

If we can isolate ourselves and consider our strategy, to take in the signals and general, higher level information and sift out the noise. And ask ourselves who are we serving, what is it for? Allow our tactics to flow from there and when our tactics fail we go back and look at how much they contribute to the strategy. As I mentioned before in the solar industry example; sometimes it’s about solving a particular conundrum in the industry rather than being the winner. Other times, it’s forging a way forward when times are difficult.

This “big” thinking alleviates that anxiety and keeps one focused on those key questions. Who are we serving and what is it for?

Bad guy and other tensions

We don’t like to give negative feedback to people because it puts tension and makes us the bad guy. And then when we do give the feedback, it becomes a criticism. Navigating this tension of being the good guy and doing the right thing seems tough because we have this false dichotomy that either we are focused on outcomes, and people have to suffer – or we are focused on people and outcomes have to suffer.

I don’t agree. Our mental circuitry moves thoughts in this direction because of our obsession with speed, which I generally don’t agree with. Though I confess I fall for that trap too. We can be people and outcome oriented at the same time because it is after all the people who are generating the outcomes.

The balance comes in feedback when we focus on the circumstances, what can and cannot be changed, and on the mistake itself rather than the person. If someone drops something, he dropped something – it can mean he is clumsy but it may not. Criticism masked feedback that is levered at the identity of a person will not be appreciated.

And because people confuse the two, they think giving negative feedback is being a bad person. That intenal conflict and negative self-perception fuels the emotional-charge nature of this activity. We sometimes think not making the personal attack is sugar-coating and we switch between not wanting to be the hypocritical while not wanting to be the sufferer of the ignorance of the perpetrator.

We can all contribute to better working environments by first being better at giving and receiving feedback. It is an effective way to care and we can become more effective in that.

Making Progress in difficult times

Given how prolonged the ongoing pandemic is, those who have been holding things off until ‘normalcy returns’ can no longer really hang on to that. You will have to start considering how to move forward, how to be able to making progress regardless of the kind of circumstances that are in place.

For starters, progress is non-linear. It is not unidirectional or unidimensional. You can’t look at progress just from one metric and certainly, it is not just about moving in one direction for each of those metrics. There will be trade-offs, and there is no single driver for the whole time.

I want to consider the example of the solar power industry. It had a lot of false starts which in retrospect, contributed to its longer term development. Those window of opportunities drew bright minds and investors into the picture when they otherwise would not have entered. And these were important contributions to the industry even if they did not immediately make things take off.

There were times when the industry was not focused and still in limbo as to whether mono-crystalline or poly-crystalline or thin-film technology would be the de-facto. Even when the leading technology became clearer, further cost reduction and revenue enhancement opportunities had to be explored, including replacing string inverters with micro inverters to reduce single-point-of-failures in the solar array.

So your business may not be getting so much volumes now, perhaps it’s time to look at improving customer service, raising the quality of service, introducing better processes. These are things that are hard to do when all your staff are engaged, and busy with the status quo. Investments take the form of capital and also time. This might be the time to work on those investments that takes time.

Strategy and Tactics

I used to work for a big boss who often shared tidbits of humorous wisdom during some of the smaller meetings we have when he reviews our work. He usually have his set of 2×2 matrix which he comes up with analogies about all kinds of things. One of these matrices is about strategy and tactics. He reminds us that they are different and also that people with different combination of intelligence about strategy and tactics would derive quite different outcomes.

So we have 4 quadrants, from the combination of high and low abilities in strategy and in tactics. So there’s the ones who are high on strategy and tactics. He calls them the guided missiles; they do well at strategising and executes them well, on-point, on-target with resources optimised. Then there are those who are high on strategy but low on tactics; he calls them the empty canon (or artillery), they’d point at the enemy and at the right angle but then when it comes down to firing, nothing gets hit. Then there are those who are low on strategy and high on tactics; he says that’s the machine gun; you fire blatantly hoping you’ll hit the target which you might but also drain a lot of resources and potentially cause collateral damage.

Finally, those low on strategy and tactics are submarines. They’re just hanging around. But maybe, they are carrying a guided missile with them.

So who are you, and are you thinking about strategy and tactics clearly? Do you differentiate them?