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Clarifying Australia bioenergy figures

Over the years, thanks to the multiple pieces of work Blunomy (previously Enea Consulting) had completed on bioenergy in Australia, we have often been cited and also asked questions about the relationship between numbers in our reports.

Since the publication of a piece of analysis Blunomy completed for AGIG last year on Biomethane potential and benefits, I sat down to review and work out a sort of directory to connect together the various work that different clients have commissioned us to do and all now in the public domain.

This is an effort I have undertaken to help generate more clarity in the conversations around bioenergy, especially biomethane resources in Australia. Blunomy continues to seek to accelerate the transition by developing analysis that drives evidence-based decision-making.

We started working on the National Bioenergy Roadmap for Australia back in 2020 and that was an attempt to look into all the bioenergy resources, regardless of what kind of fuel they could produce. The total theoretical potential estimated at 2600 PJ was computed based on the net calorific value of the various feedstock streams available including forestry residue and biomass, with assumptions applied on their moisture content.

In the Roadmap, we assumed a 45% recovery rate under the Business-As-Usual modelling as ‘limited information is available to assess [feedstocks’] current and future, technical, commercial and sustainable accessibility’.

Subsequently, Blunomy started looking into biogas/biomethane in greater detail, studying the biomethane yield of various feedstock streams suitable. Sustainability Victoria commissioned a piece of work around Victoria’s biogas potential, which was published in 2021. The main contribution of this piece of work is the stricter selection of feedstocks and the application of different recovery rates for different feedstock streams. The study eliminated some of the resources from consideration for biogas potential due to high lignin content and also determined that paper & cardboard were more suited for recycling.

Table excerpt from the Victoria biogas potential assessment (2021)

While this work only covered the potential for the state of Victoria, once again, using data from the Australian Biomass for Bioenergy Assessment (ABBA) study, the approach on feedstock selection and recovery rates were eventually applied to more states in Australia to obtain the Australia biogas technical potential that was presented in the Appendix (Slide 36) of the 2030 Emission Reduction Opportunities for Gas Networks Report (2022) published for Energy Networks Australia. In it, we stated that the biogas technical potential of Australia was 506 PJ.

These figures, including the state-level breakdowns, were extensively used by ACIL Allen in their work on Renewable Gas Target for APGA and ENA. They added landfill gas into the mix, something we did not previously include in our studies as we felt that landfill gas was ultimately a subset of the feedstock potential from the waste streams we had already computed in our theoretical potential. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that when considering how much biomethane could be produced per annum in the near to medium term, the landfill gas resource cannot be ignored.

One of the important elements when considering the broad use of biomethane to displace natural gas was the consideration of proximity to gas networks. We got to dive more closely into that in 2023 when AGIG commissioned the mapping work for biomethane resources around their networks in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland. By this time, Blunomy had developed a new methodology to disaggregate the biomethane feedstocks spatially by using land-use data. This allowed us to estimate the amount of feedstock with greater granularity on locations, though the recovery rates were still applied according to feedstock streams.

The report was eventually published in 2024. It contained not just the biomethane potential near AGIG’s networks; we reviewed and updated waste stream figures in some states, included landfill gas resources into consideration, and updated the recovery rates in consultation with more local experts. As a result, we developed updated theoretical and recoverable potentials of biomethane in the states of South Australia, Victoria and Queensland. Those updated figures suggest that waste figures have been increasing over time, and the biomethane potential is likely above the 506 PJ we estimated in 2021.

It has been an incredible journey since the days of the National Bioenergy Roadmap. We had to deal with so many doubts about biogas and biomethane, misinformation and poor understanding of the nature of this biogenic source of methane. As Victoria’s government contemplates their approach to renewable gas in the state to deal with impending gas shortfalls and the need to decarbonise energy use, there is no longer doubt that we need biomethane. It is a question of how to get it into the system quickly. I hope we don’t have to hit up so many walls this time to get it right.

This article was first posted on Linkedin as my first article contribution to the platform. The link can be found here.

Return on Experience

Blunomy is a French firm and being part of the firm for over four years now brings fresh perspectives that an Asian person schooled in very Anglo-Saxon education systems did not quite have as much.

One was about the ability to disagree as a reflection of the group’s collective ability to grow and be smarter. As an Asian, I overvalue harmony and tend to see open disagreement as unhealthy or disrespectful. Yet being amongst the French taught me to recognise that in a room full of smart people, something might be very wrong if everyone agrees with one another because the world is inherently complex and we are probably missing out on diverse perspectives if there were no disagreement. Being able to wrestle with differing perspectives could help everyone grow and learn.

Another was this concept of ‘REX’ that I kept seeing the French people use in my firm. They typically use that term for ‘after-action review’ but the term refers to ‘return on experience’. It sounds logical to be able to gain some kind of return (as in flow of benefits) from having experienced something. But I never quite thought of it that way until now. We always somehow take for granted that someone who have done something often or for a long time would be ‘experienced’. That’s not really true. An industry veteran who have been at a job for 40 years could simply have had 40 times of 1-year experiences if he did not learn anything with each additional year of experience. Simply being at a job or a post does nothing to prove that you are ‘experienced’.

When we consider assessing people for ‘experience’, it is no longer as simple as considering the CV of someone. It is mostly about assessing someone’s learning capability. Someone who can learn fast and sustain their interest in a topic, going deeper and deeper is much better than someone who plainly had been in the same place for a long time without demonstrating the capacity or hunger to learn.

Fast followers

Being a fast follower is a good strategy; it allows you to take in the lessons from those who have tried and failed first. It is even a strategy that enables you to become a leader from public’s eyes.

But the challenge for the fast follower who gained leadership status is falling into the trap of thinking they are the leader. Their skills in curating what they learnt from the mavericks, scaling what was small and bringing things to market fast, are not going to be suited for what is required to take real leadership: influencing the market, uncovering innovation from their own values and principles.

They may have to pivot at some point when they’ve outcompeted all those whom they were fast-following.

Humanity in courts

This might be the first time tears have welled in my eyes as I read a news article. I was moved, perhaps, by the judge’s humanity. There was so much latent grief embedded in the case itself: the unreconciled relationship, unexpressed emotions, pent-up difficulties, and struggles that weren’t understood.

How different would the world be if we brought more of our humanity to our work, our relationships and our lives?

Newly ripened grain

Amongst Christians, perhaps even non-Christians, people know of this story about Jesus feeding of five thousand. And this really large scale miracle work probably pushed His name out far and wide during those times.

What I realised is how that story about God feeding many with a little (that was a small gift) isn’t something new. In 2 Kings 4, through Elisha, God brought about a small miracle of multiplying food for men.

“Then a man came from Baal Shalisha, and brought the man of God bread of the firstfruits, twenty loaves of barley bread, and newly ripened grain in his knapsack. And he said, “Give it to the people, that they may eat.” But his servant said, “What? Shall I set this before one hundred men?” He said again, “Give it to the people, that they may eat; for thus says the Lord: ‘They shall eat and have some left over.’ ” So he set it before them; and they ate and had some left over, according to the word of the Lord.”
– ‭‭II Kings‬ ‭4‬:‭42‬-‭44‬ ‭NKJV‬‬

My heart was moved after reading this passage, realising how much Jesus was even amplifying some of the grace shown to Israel by God in earlier episodes. The feeding of the five thousand in my mind now is no longer just about Jesus’ compassion and provision. It is another imprint of God’s unchanging love for His people through the ages.

Jesus’ ministry during the 3 years when He was active really amazing brings out the person of God within a short time. To say He lived and fulfilled scriptures was one thing, but when you really study the scriptures further, it just amazes you how much Jesus truly did that. And even more so, that life was one that taught and enriched our understanding of God.

Having the desire to emulate Christ is good, but it cannot be done without understanding. And the only proper way to gain understanding besides living out life and experiencing it, is through the word of God.

Pie-eating contests

Charlie Munger once said of the legal profession that it was very much like a pie-eating contest where the winner gets to eat more pie.

I laughed at that.

Because many other professions are the same. The capable staff gets more work to do; and having proven himself, gets promoted into handling more responsibilities.

But for most part, workaholics love their pie.

And to a large extent, for some, they don’t care about winning or losing at pie-eating. What matters to them is they get to eat pie.

Maybe that appreciation for work is what we need. Not to obsess so much over the winning or losing but instead, focus on the pie. And when the pie is no longer tasty, you quit. Because there wasn’t so much at stake to begin with.

Touting on streets

I’m not sure if it’s just me, but these days, when I’m walking in public spaces, I get really tense and stressed when people approach me to try and get me to do something. Something inside me feels like they are stealing my attention and time without my permission. Yet, at the same time, I do want to be kind and empathise with the person working hard on the street.

Forgiveness and repentance

Someone asked whether God forgives every single sin conceivable or possible. Most likely, the person asking the question thinks of ‘sin’ as some immoral, atrocious deed. As Christians, we see sin as inherently a rebellion against God and His order.

So, I’d answer that God, indeed, can forgive every single sin. And He has shown that by sending Christ to die on the cross. He made Christ pay the price for every sin.

The follow-on question, of course, is, “So why isn’t everyone saved?”

That is because I’d continue, “Every sin is forgiven, but not every sinner is repentant.”

The modern narrative about wrong-doing and forgiveness is such that forgiveness is an antidote against resentment, as if the forgiveness is for the victim or recipient of the wrongdoing, rather than the wrongdoer. And then that’s it; we say nothing about the wrong-doer or the part he/she has. Apologies? Making a restitution? What if that is beyond the person? The very least is repentance. Repentance is an appreciation of what sin constitutes, acknowledgement of culpability, and recognising the forgiveness for what it is, and subsequently being liberated from the guilt.

David and Solomon

Growing up in a church kindergarten and then attending bible study as a child, I always had the impression that David, the king of Israel who properly ‘unified’ the Israelites after the period of Judges was a blessed man with a well-celebrated life.

Yet when you really read through the books of 2 Samuel and also the Psalms, you begin to see the flaws of David as a man, the countless mistakes he had made. He clearly became very depressed in different junctures of his life, whether it was during the time he was escaping from Saul’s pursuit, or dealing with the betrayal of his son. Nevertheless, he was described as a man after God’s own heart – evident from the occasions he bounced back from having acknowledged his great sins, accepted the consequences, and reconciling with God, each time he made the mistakes and sought to repent.

And skeptical scholar of history and the bible you might wonder why David is held up as a model or given so much credit. I think the exposure and place that David had was not so much a matter of giving him credit as he pointing to God and His ways.

David’s as he was simply a man chosen by God who had responded to God in ways that a very human, but faithful follower would. The achievements of David actually laid the foundation for the reign of Solomon that by secular standards would have been much more impressive than David’s reign.

From a secular perspective, Solomon would be held up more but he wasn’t. This was because we see so often that even though Solomon was given wisdom by God, he seemed to trust in his own wisdom more than God. And to that extent, most of his reign and his behaviours did little to point towards God. The book of Ecclesiastes, brings up the struggles, deep depression and sense of futility that exists in a reality without God.

There is so much to learn from David with regards to his approach towards struggles and challenges in life; because for most part, we allow ourselves to be like Solomon, going into a downward spiral of rationalising one brutal fact after another, ending with the declaration ‘vanity of vanities’. Depression is something Christians can face and there is nothing to be ashamed of. Whether in riches, or in poverty, through great circumstances or poor, the issues around mental health can strike us. Nevertheless, our response matters. And we can spiral out of control when we are not responding with the spiritual resources that our faith grants us.