Extreme Meritocracy

nature-musings

Clinical psychologist Sara-Ann wrote a recent piece on CNA about young people burning out in life and work (especially work); it relates somewhat tangentially to my not-so-recent musings on prestige careers. Strangely, she decides to spend more of her piece empowering the individual, listing 5 points that the individual can do to combat burn out. Nevertheless, she tucked in the piece a very important statement we should delve more deeply into, as a society:

[T]he onus is on organisations to recognise the importance of workplace health and build workplace cultures conducive to their employees’ physical and mental health.

There is a need to put this responsibility back to organisations; and one of the difficulty of doing this, is perhaps the misconceived notion which Sara-Ann herself perpetuated by saying:

Indeed, organisations should tread cautiously and strive to achieve a balance between increasing productivity and deleteriously endorsing a hustle culture.

This is ultimately an issue of balancing short-term and long-term priorities for any organisations. To me, the only perspective worth taking is still the long-term perspective and anything that is used to deal with short-term issues must not detract from the long-term perspective. The lack of worker engagement, endorsement of hustle culture, always asking for ‘more’ (which might involve cutting corners to create capacity to deal with more) as oppose to ‘better’ (which could involve questioning practices, eliminating inefficient or unnecessary ones, so as to create capacity to do more important things), reflects an organisation that has lost sight of the long-term perspective.

I think organisations, leaders, need to assist individuals on all of the 5 points that Sara-Ann pointed out in her commentary.

  1. Structures and leadership in place must be able to catch the warning signs of burnt out individuals – especially good-performing ones
  2. At risks of being paternalistic, organisations need to ensure basic needs of staff are fulfilled – work can never be the expense of physical and even (genuine, not perceived) psychological needs.
  3. Companies and organisations must develop credos that emphasize clear sets of priorities and actively help staff resolve conflicts between these priorities so that each individual have a good sense of how to order their work to achieve the most for the organisation
  4. Workplace health promotion and social activities can sometimes end up being additional obligations – take active steps to ensure that downtime for workers are genuine downtimes and encourage participation gently. Provide staff with time and space for down-time.
  5. Create routines for engagements that are genuine, unpretentious and safe for staff to express their views, engage in meaningful debates on things that matters to them at work. Too often, ground views are suppressed in favour of management views, politics ignored or taken as given; respecting employees, down to the lowest level, is the

A recent book I’ve been reading, Enlightened Capitalists by James O’Toole talks about many leaders and companies who have sought to do all that, and more. Whether the small size and open nature of the Singapore economy allows for that sort of practices is another story. Too often, these companies are considered sui generis but given Singapore being also a bit of a sui generis itself – I wonder, if we could choose to take this lead in this part of the world to make a difference to the way our own country continues to develop, and the manner the region would grow.

If we are to do so, then our extreme meritocracy which Sara-Ann described would be the first place to start working on. In fact, Clifton Mark penned a piece earlier this year in Fast Company, which suggests that not only is the notion of meritocracy an illusionary ideal, believing in it actually do you little good. And that, is probably how our poor 26-year-old Dave in Sara-Ann’s commentary came to be where he is. To address this conundrum relating to what could well be one of our national ideals (another one, probably less mentioned now and peddled around only when necessary, is pragmatism), would be a great challenge.

The only means would be to identify other values to supplant this so-called ideal. It has to be compelling both in psychology, philosophy and also sustainable in its economics. And to that end, I think the virtues of care, and making sure that we can sustain caring, can be a good starting point to see what we can crystallise eventually. Just as people had thought that treating people as resources for a company rather than as the soul of the company (courtesy of Sara-Ann who used that description) made economic sense; we can rewrite this orthodoxy through learning from companies highlighted in James’ book: Johnson & Johnson, ACIPCO, Levi Strauss & Co, Lewis Partnership, etc.

Prestige careers and burnout culture

Been reading quite a bit of writing on this topic primarily because I’ve been speaking to many young people about jobs and careers.

A friend shared this link to a Medium article. He was suggesting that in the context of Singapore, there is this happening and added to the list of the careers would be the sort that is promised to “government scholars”.

Singapore is unique in the sheer number of government-sponsored students in the foreign universities perhaps in proportion to our population. And myself being a beneficiary (though my friend would think, “victim”), I’d say that it has definitely help to develop a rich pool of human resource and talents. Yet as any MNC trying to move into Singapore would attest, talent for those sectors listed in the article is actually hard to come by, primarily because they are hoarded by government.

Through that article, I also found out about Andrew Yang’s book which I started reading. The beginning chapters which share largely about the motivations of high-achieving students aligns well with the true story of “elites” in Singapore. Not just the academic heros but those with lots of co-curricular achievements and even volunteering experiences.

Probably something worthwhile for Singapore government is to consider how to foster more risk-taking communities and to support talents to build things. And also to continue opening its talent pool up to be accessed by the industry- it can be shortening of bonds or just simply doing away with scholarships altogether, creating new forms or institutions that provides education in a manner that works closely with the industry and is primarily led by the industries which generate real value.

The infrastructure industry represents such a place where business focuses on value-generation for long term developments that enable economic growth, and creates new employment opportunities in the emerging economies. Yet risk-capital and human-capital is clearly under-allocated because the world has become increasingly short-term in its thinking and the influx of short-term (to the sense of instantaneous) data is worsening our myopia.

We need talents for these areas of human development. And we lack them partly as a result of the same myopia; lots of talents have poured into technology leading to that same momentum feeding itself. By virtue of its long term character, infrastructure development will find it hard to compete for both talents and resources. There will have to be a sea-change in culture and a shift in our attention towards the common future the world needs to head towards.

The greater the resolution of the big data, the poorer our vision of the big picture.

This is a bit of a seminal piece dealing with draps and bits of ideas mashed together. Hope I find time to think through and put up a few more coherent pieces soon!

This is our country, this is our flag

nature-musings

 

The 2018 NDP theme song is out. And normally, I reserve my thoughts about arts and music to myself and those closer around me because I claim no authority on these matters. But there is a certain excitement in my heart after watching the music video as I begin to discover why I like the refreshing honesty it presents.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__pmy8a17pM&w=560&h=315]

I cannot help but see how Charlie Lim’s self-penned introduction in this remade version of ‘We are Singapore’ captures the zeitgeist of today especially in the first 4 lines, which generates the emotional connection necessary to make the last 3 lines genuine, a sincere call to action.  I want to reproduce it here:

How many times have you heard them say
The future is uncertain and everything must change
Well, all of my worries and all of my fears
Begin to lose their weight, when I hold you near
If all that we are is what we believe
Then I know I’ve got to be the change I want to see
How easy we forget everything takes time
No, nothing’s ever perfect, I still call you mine

As a matter of fact, even as we criticise and complain about the country, as we travel and learn to appreciate the cleanliness, tidiness, the sense that everything just works here in Singapore, we ought to see some of those worries and fears fade away. Not in that complacent way that we once (sort of) had, but in the manner where we restore some faith in ourselves.

In contrast, Hugh Harrison’s original introduction has it reversed, where it ramps up to a high note from a low one; which of course also reflects the zeitgeist of the late 1980s. It speaks of a confidence that we have attained after two decades of nation-building and significant growth.

There was a time, when people say that
Singapore won’t make it, but we did
There was a time, when trouble seems
Too much for us to take, but we did
We build a nation, strong and free
Reaching out together
For peace and harmony

One may be tempted to put them together and say it illustrates how much we have ‘declined’ in terms of the confidence of our attitude and tone, our perspectives towards the future. But I’d rather say we have moved on towards maturity where we now no longer struggle with the same nation-budding issues but one of an established country. Where our diversity challenges now extends beyond race or religion to wealth and/or income inequality, social classes. Where our success have brought some of our capacities (such as transport infrastructure) to its limits.

Finally, in the NDP 2018 Theme Song music video, there’s also a sense of partnership between citizens and the government. It is brought out subtly through the ordinariness of the images, the people (with a diversity that extends beyond our traditional social constructs of the various groups). The simple reverberations of ‘We are Singapore’ do away with the intentional political correctness of heavily criticised NDP theme songs over the past decade. Political correctness tends to inject a subtle atmosphere of government towering over citizens and silently observing in the background, ready to pounce at any infraction. I’m really excited that we are a nation moving on from that.

Productivity Puzzle

city

I’ve looked into growth accounting for more than 3 years of my Economics education, variously as a Bachelors student as well as in my Masters. Singapore ourselves have had to confront this issue long ago. My LSE Econs 101 Professor was the one who in many ways ‘decried’ the composition of Singapore’s growth in “A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change” (1992).

A relatively recent ADB paper looking over that debate with a fair degree of hindsight suggested that in the context of today’s pursuit of development, we are kind of past those considerations. The whole debate was merely transitory in terms of our understanding of productivity but had some implications on our economic measures/policy which continued till today. In any case, I don’t want to discuss the measures; rather, I want to return to the fundamentals to argue that productivity simply isn’t an economic parameter (the way population isn’t). And our obsession with it as an economic parameter results in consigning this to the responsibility of economic bodies/agencies.

Productivity as one may simply observe, varies across countries, places, organisations and contexts. Institutions shape productivity, but so do weather conditions, not just that which is produced from land but also that which is from labour. Levels of education, the content of education within the system, as well as culture – all of these shapes productivity. In fact, the conversations around water coolers, morale of a body of people – all of these shapes productivity and it’s plain to see. Do we think we can incentivise productivity in a systematic manner?

There is this strange imagination that the answer may lie within enterprises but I afraid that is seriously misguided. Government investment will probably have to take place within the education system, and to consider society and culture at large. For example, a potential area is looking at unlocking large potential in the arts – there are lots of talented artist locked up in low wage roles who would be able to generate impressive economic returns by deploying their talents into better use. At the same time, there is scope in getting the public better educated in the arts, to step up their appreciation of intangibles in life rather than being locked into a material chase. This will also help to create a small market, with which we could crowd in more demand and supply.

It is not even about values, though I must confess I don’t agree with the prevailing societal value of an obsession with material. Given that culture and education has lasting, systematic impact on productivity, why are we not placing more attention on that? Enterprises, unless they are large organization with the ability to propagate useful, efficient best practices in the economy, would be ill-placed to impact the socio-cultural forces affecting productivity.

The government have so many more levers than just the economic agencies to drive productivity growth. By classifying lacklustre productivity growth as an economic challenge, we miss out the big picture and the opportunity to help the society progress in what may be traditionally considered non-economic dimensions.

Role of Regulation

transport-reinvestment

In my day job, I work with regulators often. I take on a more outward promotion role but I need to coordinate with counterparts from regulatory offices to improve our promotion efforts. Countries with reputation for good, sensible and wise regulators then to do well in terms of perceptions by investors. Of course, the past two decades of global economic trajectory may have altered this slightly (as the sheer momentum and weight of the emerging economies take hold more so than reputation of regulators); and as a consequent, countries which were “well-regulated” realised that they ended up falling behind because regulation tend to preserve status quo better than markets do.

Regulation needs to increasingly keep up not by just suspending rules or simplifying them. These actions are often needed and review processes need to be radically reduced for regulators to adapt to the volatile world quickly. More importantly tolerance or intolerance of mistakes must stem from an enlightened understanding of operations being regulated so that the spirit of rules rather than just the letter is being complied with.

Political leadership to such change is of paramount importance. Regulators are normally bureacrats who relies on political leaders to give them cover and even directions. Leaders who are too easily shaken by public opinions and populists tend to do a bad job supporting regulators’ work because of the generally negative perception associated with them. On the other hand, a publicly popular regulator may not necessarily be a good sign of a job well done. This tension has to be well balanced.

Talents vs Leaders

nature-musings

In 1992 when Francis Fukuyama published The End of History and the Last Man, he truly did not anticipate what would come of liberal democracy and the state of capitalism today. In a 2014 WSJ opinion piece, he reminds readers that liberal democracy still do not have an intellectually-appealing challenger in the realm of ideas, but the truth is that the idealism that has surrounded this political system has weakened considerably. Francis Fukuyama talks of ‘political decay’, where values of liberty and economic opportunity is eroded by crony capitalism.

While musing about the future of Singapore, and just the general lack of leadership within what I consider the ‘western world’ and adherents of ‘liberal democracy’, it occured to me that that could have something to do with being in a liberal democracy for a little too long. One of the reason for the recent lack of statesmanship in the global economy is definitely the problem of lack of leadership within individual nations; this in turn is perhaps a consequence of decades of peace, lack of outright crises or clear-cut ‘big’ problems in the liberal democracies. As a result, talents abound but their attention becomes focused on making gains for themselves rather than to secure a better future for the whole of mankind. The kind of complacency that Francis Fukuyama felt about liberal democracy as a political system was probably shared by so many people that there was no more a need to ‘strive towards a better system’.

Now back to thinking about Singapore. Are we as we are today because of the similar sort of complacency? As we see other nations & powers (and I’m referring to US and UK) struggle with lack of leadership, do we not realise that might be seeing potential versions of our future? Are our talents working to secure a better future for our society and people or just trying to make a name for themselves as individuals? Without leadership in organisations, government, business or clear direction for an economy’s development, can the human capital of our generation still be harnessed for the betterment of our people or would it be squandered? I am working on a roadmap out of this seeming rut. And I hope to find likeminded fellows who would join my endeavour.

Developing Human Capital

infrastructure

The human resource infrastructure in Singapore is creaking. And it’s because we have not institutionalise or captured the genius of our great founding fathers. Kishore Mahbubani’s recent column article about them really intends for readers to strike a comparison – but going beyond that, I want to think we have not missed the opportunity. But huge overhauls will be required. It is often harder to overturn legacy than to start afresh – we risk being trapped that way as a nation. Being small and nimble, I hope we’ll be able to.

Some of the qualities of our people really defines the trajectory of the nation; and these qualities are nurtured through education, corporate life, society. Are we then shaping our next generation to have the same kind of qualities as those needed? Time and again I see in education that cradling of fixed mindsets; I see in corporate life the resistance towards building up capabilities – choosing to dwell on opportunistic means of making profit and survive rather than thrive. I wonder how Kishore Mahbubani’s listing of the 3 attributes that our founding fathers – Incessant curiosity, ruthless realism and pragmatism – holds up with our current generation against the backdrop of institutions and structures well established.

Incessant curiosity. Do we encourage people to ask questions? Before that, we have to ask ourselves do we like questions? Do we care more about getting the right answers or getting the right questions? I had a new colleague recently and was called upon to mentor her. One of the first things I told her was that in order to pick things up really quick, you have to be able to work out what to pick up first. And you do so by training your mind to seek out right questions to ask. Never mind about the answers yet; you worry about whether answers are right or wrong only after you gain mastery of what to look out for. And that’s precisely a challenge for our education system. Throughout our traditional Primary and Secondary education, students are given a syllabus and just loads of content. To an ordinary Singaporean student, a subject is defined more by the content of its syllabus than the questions it poses to the world.

Ruthless realism. How realistic are we? We tell our children to go and study law, medicine, accountancy and engineering because those provides them with secure and stable jobs? Whilst that may sound realistic to you, it’s not at all. If money, security are the only attributes that you care about in the world then it distorts your reality. Ruthless realism is about focusing on attributes of reality that matters and identifying what are the trade-offs involved. Knowing these ‘hard truths’ prepares us to take on the real world much better. Do our children know the kind of work involved in the disciplines they undertake? How are we preparing them for disruption and new frontiers?

Pragmatism. I’m actually not sure how many people know the difference between pragmatism and realism. Pragmatism, in the Singaporean sense refers more to the notion that we are not rooted to any particular ideology; practical application of ideologies and whatever suits us best is adopted. However, that description is more of an outcome than the spirit of pragmatism. The spirit behind pragmatism is actually the methodology of refining ideologies and theories based on what we expect or experience in practice. In dwelling on the outcome of our founding fathers’ pragmatism, we overlook the sort of process and methodology that underlies those decisions and lend weight to the mistaken notion that pragmatism is the same as ‘whatever works for you/us’ kind of laissez faire approach.

Building up our infrastructure to nurture human capital and capture the gains we’ve lost through the last decade or so will require a mix of radicalism and incrementalism. And I propose the following moves in response to the comment above:

  1. Clarify ‘pragmatism’ and teach the practise of it
  2. Stop insulating our people from ‘hard truths’
  3. Encourage asking of the right questions rather than seeking ‘right answers’

Starting from our education system, this 3 moves can be practised most immediately by encouraging behavioural changes by teachers in class. This can only be carried out through content reduction, and shifting more discretion to teachers in terms of evaluating students’ abilities based on wholistic assessment (rather than just exams). Next, at government level, communications with citizens, treatment of all public service clientele needs to drive that 3 thrust. The thinking process which leads to pragmatic outcomes needs to be properly crafted and communicated – however politically incorrect they may be. Finally, I think corporates can start looking at the 3 thrust as tools for employee development and engagement to raise the standards of the way the deal with people. This will help them to nurture the next generation to be better managers and decision-makers.

The Inner Conversation

nature-musings

In a recent chat with a colleague, we were reminded about how our schools tend to make the best school team train the hardest in every sport – while the second teams or backbenchers are often treated with more laxity. “Shouldn’t the poorer-performing teams be working harder? That way they can get better! And in fact, it’s easier for them to get much better by training harder, as opposed to those who are already good!” I exclaimed. I am basically suggesting the possibility of diverting resources from the best, and propping up the poorer ones – very controversial. Too much ink have been spilled over (see RI boy’s support for elitism and Middle Ground’s comeback) the whole equality vs equity argument and whether elitism is in itself good or bad. I want to consider a very different perspective on the very same issue.

The germination of the ‘winner-takes-it-all’ attribute in sports has bred fixed mindsets. Schools are giving off the impression that if you are no good at something, don’t even bother trying. And the poisonous combination of meritocracy with such a fixed mindset creates social immobility and entrenchment of inequality. Is that the right message we want our students to pick up? Is it true that even for winner-takes-it-all settings, it won’t be worthwhile to strive?

Kids today are smarter than they ever were at the same age – but they have also been brought up in a manner that attempts to get them to ‘play it smart’. Admittedly, when one’s resources and potential are limited and close to its limits, playing it smart is wise. Yet for one who is young and with boundless energy, perhaps learning how to channel those energies correctly would mean a difference for all of life ahead. Are we satisfied with merely selecting students who had shown themselves to be ahead early on in life only to lose out the vast human capital locked in everyone else? In fact, are we destroying the human capital potential of everyone else in perpetuating a system like that? That is something we should think more deeply about than just be stuck in considering whether elitism is good for society and then move ahead. The construct of that elitist culture matters.

Let’s take a detour and consider grit. When writing about mavericks’ attitudes, I actually wrote about the importance of encouraging grit and persistence. I probably had a little inkling that a lot of life and learning is not about being smart but having the stamina to go through the hard stuff. Growth mindset essentially is about structuring good inner conversations that allows one to encourage oneself in times of difficulty; in many ways it is a belief – not necessarily in oneself but in values of persistence and a faith that it would all eventually be worth it. Angela Lee Duckworth’s talk on TED would probably convince you that we have to look more deeply into this. Our only chance at nurturing a more robust future generation would depend on it. And in some sense, it means devoting more resources not in selection of any individuals or any pool of them but nurturing that overarching culture and framework by which individuals strive and thrive.

Is our society investing in grit or forsaking it just so we can have short-term gains in sporting finals of students in teenage? Or for just the sake of being able to select the small handful of ‘future leaders’? In fact, is the thought of someone being a ‘future leader’ merely a manifestation of the fixed mindset we have inherited?

Some questions to reflect on.

Knowledge & Progress

education

The construction of neat narratives might be a necessary feature of modern life, particularly that of corporate slaves. I would say that is probably a result of the tyranny of rationality and science in modern management. There is always a need to rationalise success, or failure for that matter despite the fact that market forces reign so strongly over the fates of business units, divisions or entire companies. And ultimately, most of these rationalisation are tinged with hindsight bias of the uttermost naive kind. Nassim Taleb puts it another way about the misconception behind derivation of knowledge:

So, in the corpus, knowledge is presented as derived in the following manner: basic research yields scientific knowledge, which in turn generates technologies, which in turn lead to practical applications, which in turn lead to economic growth and other seemingly interesting matters. The payoff from the “investment” in basic research will be partly directed to more investments in basic research, and the citizens will prosper and enjoy the benefits of such knowledge-derived wealth with Volvo cars, ski vacations, Mediterranean diets, and long summer hikes in beautifully maintained public parks. – Nassim Taleb, Antifragile

And it all started in school when we are taught to weave neat narratives to describe life, experiences, make arguments, and communicate. Clear communication is important but often, that can also stand in the way of clear thinking or obscure the ability to grasp the complexity of things. But how then do we teach kids? I described what we do right now as teaching closer approximations of the truth to kids as they grow up. So we begin with descriptors about the world that are sufficient to the layman but not perfectly accurate and then we force people to unlearn those to pick up increasingly accurate picture of the universe. That, is essentially, stylising facts or concepts to help people learn – which isn’t wrong. The only challenge is when the stylised version of things becomes regarded as truth.

There is an alternative route and I have a proposal. Teach knowledge-discovery rather than knowledge. Teach questioning rather than answer-giving. We all know how pesky the questions of children can be; and perhaps thats why we don’t encourage their ‘whys’. But those are great opportunities to teach knowledge discovery; curiosity and the nature of their hunger to learn is why kids often ask ‘why’ – but they need to realise that answering these questions is often more than about just checking in with an adult. We don’t show them the process of knowledge-discovery enough. Instead we try to feed them with endless knowledge, things we declare they should know. Stop.

How about schools? What are some practical changes possible? Take the introduction of Science in Primary school for example. I recall in Primary 3, the first thing I was taught is the 5 sense. Senses was how we perceive the world but then the focus went on to the various parties of the body that ‘staff’ these senses and then we move on to the topic of living things and so on. How about we ask questions instead, ‘how do we experience the world?’ or ‘how do we know about the world?’. These questions will mean different things for a person at different stages of development but just as well – they are prompters to introduce means by which we acquire knowledge. And we can then use that to talk about how we use our eyes, nose, ear, tongue, skin to discover the world at the most primary level. The key syllabus objectives should not read ‘knowing what are the 5 senses’, it should be ‘being imbued with a sense of wonder about ourselves and our world’.

If our children are not ready for the future; how will our companies, industries or even the nation be future-ready?

 

Housing a city

city

The Economist recently ran an article on HDB and the public housing in Singapore. They are generally critical of government controls and the lack of liberty though they clearly admire the Singapore system. The one interesting criticism that I picked up however, seem to be quite an important perspective on the socio-political landscape in Singapore.

[E]xtremely high rates of home-ownership have helped make Singapore’s electorate unusually risk-averse.

While the example has to do with threats of upgrading projects being delayed or reordered – which I personally don’t think features that strongly in reality – I am reminded that reducing risky behaviours (which can ultimately manifest in the form of social unrest) was one of the reasons to push for home ownership. That one owns an asset gives one a stake is true. Of course, in the case of HDB, it is not the truest form of ownership but it got close enough and the ease of achieving ‘ownership’ compensates for all the strict controls in place.

As a matter of fact however, the housing policy and drive towards home-ownership does indeed having behavioural-modifying characteristics that transcends the socio-political landscape. It has affected the economy in that entrepreneurship by the lower strata of the society is curbed. Where regulations are strict and means of livelihoods needs to be officiated (eg. registering for a license, obtaining relevant approvals, renting a stall formally, etc.), the poor becomes ‘priced-out’, or ‘hassled-out’. Then comes the orthodoxy that getting ownership of a home is good combined with a rental market that is made hot by external capital, whatever capital one has left is ploughed into housing. The social leveller of entrepreneurship is hence restrained.

Education, which once was a bit more of a leveller, is close to losing its role. Once there were scholarship programmes to improve social mobility and give most students access to equal opportunities. But as learning becomes more vibrant with project work, the need to tap on resources and networks beyond the school, being from privileged backgrounds allows one to shine disproportionately. The growth of the tuition and supplementary education industry is a testament to the way financial muscle has made its way into disrupting education as a equaliser.

Risk-taking is important in the economy (not just for the lower strata but upper echelon as well) and even conservatism can be rightly channeled towards certain areas. This is where a new model of thinking about economics needs to find its champion in a city like Singapore where we’ve done well in being different in the globalised market economy.

Just musing.