Over the years, thanks to the multiple pieces of work Blunomy (previously Enea Consulting) had completed on bioenergy in Australia, we have often been cited and also asked questions about the relationship between numbers in our reports.
Since the publication of a piece of analysis Blunomy completed for AGIG last year on Biomethane potential and benefits, I sat down to review and work out a sort of directory to connect together the various work that different clients have commissioned us to do and all now in the public domain.
This is an effort I have undertaken to help generate more clarity in the conversations around bioenergy, especially biomethane resources in Australia. Blunomy continues to seek to accelerate the transition by developing analysis that drives evidence-based decision-making.
We started working on the National Bioenergy Roadmap for Australia back in 2020 and that was an attempt to look into all the bioenergy resources, regardless of what kind of fuel they could produce. The total theoretical potential estimated at 2600 PJ was computed based on the net calorific value of the various feedstock streams available including forestry residue and biomass, with assumptions applied on their moisture content.
In the Roadmap, we assumed a 45% recovery rate under the Business-As-Usual modelling as ‘limited information is available to assess [feedstocks’] current and future, technical, commercial and sustainable accessibility’.
Subsequently, Blunomy started looking into biogas/biomethane in greater detail, studying the biomethane yield of various feedstock streams suitable. Sustainability Victoria commissioned a piece of work around Victoria’s biogas potential, which was published in 2021. The main contribution of this piece of work is the stricter selection of feedstocks and the application of different recovery rates for different feedstock streams. The study eliminated some of the resources from consideration for biogas potential due to high lignin content and also determined that paper & cardboard were more suited for recycling.
While this work only covered the potential for the state of Victoria, once again, using data from the Australian Biomass for Bioenergy Assessment (ABBA) study, the approach on feedstock selection and recovery rates were eventually applied to more states in Australia to obtain the Australia biogas technical potential that was presented in the Appendix (Slide 36) of the 2030 Emission Reduction Opportunities for Gas Networks Report (2022) published for Energy Networks Australia. In it, we stated that the biogas technical potential of Australia was 506 PJ.
These figures, including the state-level breakdowns, were extensively used by ACIL Allen in their work on Renewable Gas Target for APGA and ENA. They added landfill gas into the mix, something we did not previously include in our studies as we felt that landfill gas was ultimately a subset of the feedstock potential from the waste streams we had already computed in our theoretical potential. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that when considering how much biomethane could be produced per annum in the near to medium term, the landfill gas resource cannot be ignored.
One of the important elements when considering the broad use of biomethane to displace natural gas was the consideration of proximity to gas networks. We got to dive more closely into that in 2023 when AGIG commissioned the mapping work for biomethane resources around their networks in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland. By this time, Blunomy had developed a new methodology to disaggregate the biomethane feedstocks spatially by using land-use data. This allowed us to estimate the amount of feedstock with greater granularity on locations, though the recovery rates were still applied according to feedstock streams.
The report was eventually published in 2024. It contained not just the biomethane potential near AGIG’s networks; we reviewed and updated waste stream figures in some states, included landfill gas resources into consideration, and updated the recovery rates in consultation with more local experts. As a result, we developed updated theoretical and recoverable potentials of biomethane in the states of South Australia, Victoria and Queensland. Those updated figures suggest that waste figures have been increasing over time, and the biomethane potential is likely above the 506 PJ we estimated in 2021.
It has been an incredible journey since the days of the National Bioenergy Roadmap. We had to deal with so many doubts about biogas and biomethane, misinformation and poor understanding of the nature of this biogenic source of methane. As Victoria’s government contemplates their approach to renewable gas in the state to deal with impending gas shortfalls and the need to decarbonise energy use, there is no longer doubt that we need biomethane. It is a question of how to get it into the system quickly. I hope we don’t have to hit up so many walls this time to get it right.
This article was first posted on Linkedin as my first article contribution to the platform. The link can be found here.